Statehood, Governance, and Social Resilience in Fragile Contexts

The New Middle East in the New World Paradigm
The Middle East is going through epochal changes both on the geopolitical and socio-economic levels. The authoritarian and semi-authoritarian systems, which mainly govern the region, are facing structural difficulties in confronting with their own societies. It seems that in various Middle Eastern societies, there is a will and a call for more freedom and prosperity. This change is coming mainly from the new generations who are living in a new era and are fully influenced by the digital and cosmopolitan world. On the other hand, the new ongoing cold war, between Washington and Beijing, is giving to Middle East a sort of new dimension in the new global chessboard. The Middle East turns out to be one of the main areas of battle, together with the Pacific, between the China and the United States. The presentation aims to examine the main variables, both on domestic policy and foreign affairs, which can contribute to a great change in the region, highlighting the main costs and benefits. To what extent might the paradigm shift coming from Trump’s administration's foreign policy, might influence the main political change in the Middle East? And what are the main strategies of China in order to stop these potential changes?

A Comparative Study of Gender and Water Governance in Dryland Regions of South Asia
This article examines the interplay between horizontal (interstate) and vertical (intrastate) relations in shaping water-related conflicts through a comparative analysis of the Euphrates and Helmand basins in West Asia. The central research question explores how domestic security considerations influence the water policy of riparian states and what role they play in either undermining or fostering basin cooperation. Drawing on the theoretical framework of hydropolitical security complexes and employing a comparative qualitative methodology, the study analyses historical, political, and social data from both basins. Findings reveal that in both basins, riparians have instrumentalised water resources to serve internal security agendas, social control, and regime survival. This approach has led to water disputes manifesting primarily as domestic unrest and institutional breakdowns, rather than interstate water wars. Moreover, the exclusion of women and local communities from water governance has weakened social resilience and eroded trust-building mechanisms. The article argues that any analysis of water conflict is incomplete without accounting for internal political dynamics. It further suggests that horizontal relationships between borderland communities may offer a starting point for resolving hydro-political tensions—especially within authoritarian regimes and volatile geopolitical environments.

Afghanistan as a Black Hole State: A Novel Conceptual Redefinition
This study conceptualises Afghanistan as a “black hole state” and analyses the reasons this term is deemed appropriate at the international level. At the domestic level, Afghanistan represents a “multi” country, characterised by multi-ethnicities, multi-languages, multi-religious affiliations, and multi-geographic divisions. At the regional level, drawing on Barry Buzan’s concept in Regions and Powers, the country functions as an insulator state-a space separating neighbouring regional security complexes. The main focus of this paper, however, lies at the international level, where Afghanistan is defined as a “black hole state.” This new concept describes a weak state that, despite its fragility, repeatedly absorbs great powers. Over the past three centuries, nineteenth, twentieth, and twenty-first-century great powers (Britain, the Soviet Union, and the United States) have invaded Afghanistan but finally withdrew their forces. This pattern suggests that Afghanistan, rather than being merely a weak or failed state, operates as a black hole within the international system-one that draws in and exhausts external powers. The research question is: why did these three superpowers choose to intervene militarily in Afghanistan, and why did each ultimately withdraw? In response to this question, the research hypothesis is that the term "Black Hole State" seems to offer a more accurate concept for assessing the situation in Afghanistan. The study employs a descriptive and conceptual approach, aiming to offer a more precise term for Afghanistan’s exceptional international position.

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